Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
