A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
