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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of documents might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would serve as guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not seen the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. A key demand centers on Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard formations rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” commented the president, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he concluded.